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fun image number 1: - don't let the bastards grind you down.
taumeson
taumeson
fun image number 1:




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swolfe From: swolfe Date: March 7th, 2003 10:22 am (UTC) (Link)
notice that the recent data is from a period twice as long (16 years as opposed to 8). wonder if this means our crash will be twice as long as the great depression :)

actually, i don't think this data necessarily means anything...you can tell some damn good lies with statistics :)
(Deleted comment)
taumeson From: taumeson Date: March 7th, 2003 02:56 pm (UTC) (Link)
I think I actually read somethign on that site that says "Yeah, probably so".

The point is that for the stock market, because it's not based on news or anything (they tend to follow the market, not the other way around), that it's PURE statistics, because humans are herd animals and we're going to act the same anyway. That's what the Elliott Wave theory is all about.

It predicted the crash of '87, and that's when it pretty much got validated. The only thing is that the graph ends in 2000, and I'm pretty sure 2001 and 2002 didn't follow the same trends as 1929...though that doesn't mean that we're not gonna follow a slow path down to the lows that '29 gave us.

But when you couple that with our debt ridden economy and the imminent bursting of the housing bubble (caused by banks wanting liquidity when too many people go bankrupt..it's a statistical fact that this is happening), will cause everything to plummet.

Woohoo.
swolfe From: swolfe Date: March 7th, 2003 07:36 pm (UTC) (Link)
i disagree. i think the markets follow the news very closely. elections, hijackings, etc. all affect the markets. i mean, even today...the market started out in the toilet, but once the rumor of osama's sons being captured started circulating it rose to where the dow closed up 60 points.
wiffler From: wiffler Date: March 8th, 2003 05:22 pm (UTC) (Link)
It's a different system today. Factors like 401(k) accounts (constant share purchase) and automatic Market closing make the Market less likely to crash.
taumeson From: taumeson Date: March 10th, 2003 05:11 pm (UTC) (Link)
401(k) accounts do have a marked effect..but all it takes is a slow-burn type of mass hysteria to get people to stop investing.

it's less about a stock market crash than it is just a general malaise in the economy becoming a down right epidemic. i mean, the Dow has lost about 30% of its value in the past two years, and people aren't out for blood..they're just concerned. certainly one shouldn't be worried about a stock market crash (and one can always sell short to actually profit off a crash). what the worrisome part is is that the economy is tied to people's habits, and people's habits are pointing to some rough times.
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